Oscar Predictions from MC RoboChrist

Tomorrow's the big night and I just got MC RoboChrist's picks, so here they are.

Before I get to the predictions for some of the least dramatic races in years, quick reviews on two movies I saw this past week...

Revolutionary Road *** - Solid film, horribly depressing. Kate Winslet, while very good in The Reader, is actually better in this film. Odd that she got the nom for The Reader - and that could cost her. Leo is good - he's really one of the few great pretty boy actors. And they both get to ham it up suburban angst-style, a la Liz Taylor and Richard Burton in Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf. There are bits of this movie that are fascinating. Winslet's character - a June Cleaver mom miserable in suburban New York - descends slowly into quiet madness, scene by scene. It's really a great performance. Just as unsettling are her arguments with hubby Leo, which are frighteningly reflective of REAL marital dust-ups. And Michael Shannon is great as the institutionalized son of Leo and Kate's neighbors. He pops up in two scenes visiting Leo and Kate while on a day pass from the nut house. He instantly pegs just how miserable they are in the burbs - and being nuts, he isn't afraid to say it in brutal fashion. Best parts of the movie, actually, and an interesting ploy by the writer - personifying the crux of their unspoken anger so it can in fact be spoken. We also get to see the nice boobs on Leo's mistress - played by Elia Kazan's granddaughter! I'm sure he's proud. In the end, though, the fact that the suburbs weren't all Happy Days and Father Knows Best just isn't all that original. Cutting half an hour might have helped.

Man on Wire ** - I usually dig documentaries. But I kept waiting for this one to say more, and it never delivered. It's the story of Phillipe Petit, a tightrope walker who got his 15 minutes back in the mid-70s by setting up a wire between the WTC towers (with many accomplices) and doing a 45-minute circus act 101 stories high. That in itself is cool - and probably warrants a 30-minute piece on History Channel. But the filmmakers instead make Petit out as some sort of counter-revolutionary hero ... and it just bothered the fuck out of me. I'm not a law-and-order guy by any means, but I just did not like the guy. He was - and is - the kind of egotistical dick who manages to surround himself with people so enthralled by his charm that they'll do anything to make him happy, including putting their lives on hold for months to pull off an admittedly cool stunt (and get no thanks at all - he in fact broke up immediately with his girlfriend and stopped speaking to his best friend). The other problem - besides the movie's horrid pacing (again, there were really 30 minutes of good material here) - is that there is no mention of 9/11. Would seem to me that if you're going to do a movie about the guy that pulled this stunt, you need at least five minutes of what he and his team were thinking watching the towers fall - even if it's kind the self-indulgent bullshit I expect. "I was sad to see my greatest canvas go away forever" ... or something like that. Who knows - maybe the fact that I hated the guy by the end of the film was the point. But I was left bored and angry.

Okay, now for the picks. Again, I don't see much drama here, other than the Best Actor category. There will be a surprise somewhere - there always is - but this could be the year where the surprise is that there are NO surprises. On top of all this, Hugh Jackman is hosting. That ought to be a drag. Count on 2-3 useless musical numbers and a few jokes about how bad Australia was. Jon Stewart, he's not. Heck, I'd be happy with Whoopi or Billy Crystal. Oh well.

Best Picture: There is virtually no drama here, despite some recent momentum PR-wise for Milk. Hollywood wants to thank Bollywood for reminding us all we can be happy. And in a year of no great films - and in which the best film, Gran Torino, was overlooked - it's as much a lock as a movie has been since Lord of the Rings.
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Gran Torino
Who Should Win Among the Nominees: Frost/Nixon

Best Director: No drama here, either. And I can deal with Danny Boyle winning. I just think he's going to win for what is, at best, his third best film. Trainspotting and A Life Less Ordinary were great movies. Slumdog tries to be great and fails, largely because it's trying. Plus, I get the sense this film is good despite the direction. The story and editing really make it stand up.
Who Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog
Who Should Win: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Who Should Win Among the Nominees: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Best Actor: There are two horse races in the major categories, and this is the tightest by far. Early on, everyone figured Mickey Rourke was a lock for The Wrestler. And he is very good. But the successful PR for Milk has been shifting the race toward Sean Penn for some time. In the end, I'm going with the notion that the Academy queens will not be able to stop themselves from writing the story - and reward Rourke's "career-redeeming performance" - rather that vote for the hammier, politically charged role (Penn) by an actor who has won before, and who would undoubtedly provide "the industry" with a satisfying FUCK YOU coda to the Bush presidency in his acceptance rant. In either case, I hope they both lose. I thought Richard Jenkins was great in The Visitor - he just didn't play the kind of ham role that wins Best Actor Oscars. Plus,he was great as the dad in Six Feet Under.
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Who Should Win: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Best Actress: Slight horse race here between Kate Winslet (The Reader) and Meryl Streep (Doubt). Streep could genuinely win an Oscar every time she acts. She's that good. (This is her record 15th nom.) And if she won, it probably wouldn't be a tremendous surprise, particularly since the Academy seems to have set Winslet up for another disappointment by a) shifting her role in The Reader to the leading category even though every other awards jag put it in the supporting category and b) nominating her for the lesser of two great performances. In the end, Streep has been suffering from "she's won before" syndrome for almost 30 years. And Winslet had a great year. Still, much as I lust for Ms. Winslet, I think the one who's really getting screwed is Melissa Leo, for her performance as the trailer park mom turned border smuggler in Frozen River.
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who Should Win: Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor: This is such a lock I'm not going to spend more than a couple lines on it. Heath Ledger was FANTASTIC in Dark Knight. He took on a role that a three-time Oscar winner mailed in 20 years ago and delivered a classic. Add in the maudlin sentimentality of his death and it's impossible for the Academy not to vote for him. Again, they LOVE to write the story. (They never release the final vote, but if they did, I'd bet this will be the most lopsided of the major categories.)
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Who Should Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress: This is a mess since Winslet wasn't nominated here. I wouldn't be surprised by any of the nominees winning, but the prevailing wisdom (or lack thereof) is that Penelope Cruz is going to essentially get a Lifetime Achievement Award for playing the lunatic ex in Vicky Christina Barcelona. (Plus, remember that Hollywood's fave pedophile isn't Roman Polanski - it's Woody.) I'm cool with that. She's a good actress and has tremendous cans, to boot.
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who Should Win Among the Nominees: Cruz (there are just no stand-out performances here)

Best Original Screenplay: I really loved the writing for In Bruges (Martin McDonagh). His script is certainly the all-time leader for the most gratuitous uses of the word 'cunt' in a movie - award-worthy on its own. Interestingly, McDonagh won an Oscar for best short film three years ago. If voters remember that, he has no chance. As it is, with the PR for Milk really striking a chord, this is where the voters will DEFINITELY reward the film. Also, it's the only Best Pic nominee in this category.
Who Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Who Should Win: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay: The best thing about Slumdog was the writing, whether you loved the movie, as most people did, or just kinda liked it - like me.
Who Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog
Who Should Win: Beaufoy

Enjoy the boring show, all you pricks.

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More Movie Reviews w/MC RoboChrist

From an e-mail from MC RoboChrist

Ok, so I've finally seen what is probably the best movie of the year. While it isn't a classic and no one will be surprised by my choice, you gotta see this move.

Gran Torino - *** 1/2 - Clint does it again, falling just short of three late-era masterpieces (Million-Dollar Baby, Mystic River and Unforgiven) with a smart movie in the minimalist style of Million-Dollar Baby. If anything, that is its main failing - it's a bit TOO simple cinematically. There are maybe a half-dozen settings, and you get little sense of the town being a Chicago suburb, rather than, say, a New York or Boston suburb. ... But that's splitting hairs. The story is filled with the surprises Clint's been giving us ever since he stopped playing some version of Dirty Harry/Blondie (fun as that was) with Unforgiven. And unlike Unforgiven, where you think you knew what's coming at the end and were right, trust me - in this one, you don't. And you'll think about that ending for hours if not days after you leave the theatre. ... The true acid test was Mrs. RoboChrist, a non-Clint fan, who declared this her favorite film of the year before I had a chance to cast judgment. ... While the story could have been message-y (old white racist living in Asian neighborhood finds redemption), Clint never stops showing this character's racism - in some of the funniest dialogue he's ever uttered - in every scene, and at every race, right up to the finish. In deciding to defend his Asian next-door neighhors against a local gang, Clint isn't looking for redemption as much as he's acting on principle. That alone makes it the smartest, if not the best, film of the year. The world is not black and white, and neither is this story. Clint's character is a bad man with a few good qualities, not a bad man who becomes good. ... Somehow, Hollywood missed this one altogether. No nominations, which I attribute more to Clint's decision to cast (other than himself as lead) a no-name cast of largely minority characters. Fuck the Academy. Go see this movie.

Rachel Getting Married - **1/2 - Decent film, with the best attribute being a smart depiction of an addict in recovery by Anne Hathaway (surprisingly good). It avoids the Hollywood myth that addicts are either doomed to die miserably (Leaving Las Vegas) or instantly cured after the miracle program (Clean and Sober, 28 Days) - all of which presumes that the drug/drink itself it the addict's sole issue. Hathaway's character, set loose the weekend of her sister's wedding, battles not just the urge to drink or use, but her own immaturity and emotional baggage (including one REALLY large bag), the pressure of the wedding, and family members who each have major issues of their own. You know - reality, which Hollywood rarely does well. One scene - Hathaway makes 12-step style amends to her sister in front the entire family during her rehearsal dinner toast - is about the most uncomfortable thing I've seen in a movie. Throughout, you're left wondering not only if she's going to use again, which you expect at every turn, but whether she'll survive the weekend. The movie falls shorts, though, mainly because the director/writer either ran out of dialogue and usable footage or because the filmmakers fell in love with what was an admittedly cool soundtrack. Minutes at a time are spent watching the characters dance to and/or listen to the wedding band. It gets repititive and made me wonder if there were only 75 minutes of script, so they pushed the movie closer to 2 hours by adding music videos.

WALL-E - ** - Great animation, but the over-the-top message - oh, we are ruining the environment; oh, we're such lazy fucks! - was only slightly less insulting when Al Gore spewed it in An Inconvenient Truth. Thirty minutes in, I was bored. Plus, it wasn't funny. Unless they are billed as graphic novels or avant-garde animated horror, cartoons are supposed to make you laugh. Meh.


See Gran Torino, or eat a dick.

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Oscar Talk with MC RoboChrist

MC RoboChrist is a long time friend of mine and an embittered former sports reporter who sold his soul by becoming a PR hack. RoboChrist is also a bit of an obsessive movie geek and every year around this time he spends countless hours watching movies and writing about the Oscar race. His movie reviews and breakdown of the Oscar race are too funny and entertaining for me and the rest of our friends to keep all to ourselves. For the remainder of the "awards season" I'll be posting lightly edited versions of RoboChrist's various rants about the movies. When I say lightly edited, that means I'll be removing people's names and maybe adding a hyperlink or two when applicable. -HR

Taken from an e-mail by MC RoboChrist

The dance may be a tradition, but most Indian movies I've seen are comedies or musicals, so it fits. This time it was out of place. In a movie [Slumdog Millionaire, ed.] that contains scenes SPOILER ALERT in which a little boy's eyes are boiled out of his head with hot oil, numerous characters meet grisly ends, and a gorgeous woman is disfigured, the happy dance was as appropriate as making Schindler's List a musical.

This movie will win Best Pic, and a lot more Oscars. It is very good, but I don't think it is a classic. It's great for international cinema that a non-Hollywood/London film is going to win, but I think that's one of the reasons it will win (voters love to write the news story) -- along with the fact that the other four contenders aren't classics either. As I said, Slumdog comes close - it is very well-shot, well-acted and well-written - but it didn't grab me as much it has grabbed others.

Saw Milk last night. Three stars, mainly due to Sean Penn's chameleon act as doomed SF Supe/gay activist Harvey Milk. Penn may a tremendous asshole, but he continues to improve as an actor. It's really hard to name five actors as consistently good as him on the planet. Seymour Hoffman, Downey Jr., Clint, O'Toole ... that might be it. And unlike Clint and O'Toole, you always forget it's Sean Penn. That's how good he is. He might snatch the Oscar from Mickey Rourke, which would be fine by me b/c the weeks-long steroids/drug/alcohol rage that would elicit from Rourke would be better than any 'I've been to the edge' acceptance speech Rourke would give. Plus, Penn is bound to put the unnecessary Hollywood fuck-you coda on the Bush presidency in his speech, and I don't think the voters can resist that.

Others I've seen:

Changeling - *** - Okay, so I've got wood for Clint (director here) - long-established fact. But take my word, this is a good movie. It is not a classic along the lines of Mystic River, Unforgiven or Million-Dollar Baby. But it's very well done. Angelina Jolie plays the real-life mom facing the dual horror of a kidnapped child and a corrupt police force (LA) trying to pawn off ANOTHER kid to her as a replacement so they can close the case and get good PR. Like Mr. Penn, Jolie's a cunt in real life. But she can act - and Clint once again proves he can get the best out of cunts (Penn, Jolie, Robbins, Streep). And as is typical of late-model Clint films, it's well shot, the casting is perfect, it's a got a nice score, and it moves along well. No dead parts.

In Bruges - ***1/2 - This is my new favorite film of the year. It's a farce about low-end London thugs hiding out in a Belgian tourist trap that includes some of the best dialogue I've seen on film outside of a Coen Bros. movie in ages,and a script that is worth a second view. Watch the film VERY closely. British humor rules. And while Colin Farrell (who won a Golden Globe for this role) and Brendan Gleeson are great, Ralph Fiennes steals the movie in the last 30 minutes as their insane boss done wrong. His over-the-top Cockney accent reminds me of Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast (another great performance -- and actually you can add Kingsley and Fiennes to that list of great actors who always deliver in diverse roles.) While billed as a comedy, it's got enough blood and gore to make Mr. Steaks fill his pants -- and a tender side that'll make your date fill a Kleenex or two. Add in midgets, coke and whores and I cannot understand how this film scored just a single nom (Screenplay).

The Reader - *** - Lots of nekkid Katie Dub, which I already said is worth a star on its own. They ugly her up for the movie - plus she ages over time - but it's still a visual feast. Still, the film's a tad long and plodding. Kinda tough to get into a Holocaust picture that doesn't actually take place DURING the Holocaust (but rather in a) post-War Germany and b) a courtroom). And the basic point of the script - that it is less embarrassing to admit you let a pack of Jews burn in a Church than to acknowledge you could not have committed the crime BECAUSE YOU ARE ILLITERATE! seems a bit hard to grasp. Ralph Fiennes shows up again , playing the aged version of Kate's post-War teen-age lover. It's a different and yet still perfectly acted role than the ones he played in In Bruges or The Duchess.

Doubt - **1/2 - There's a very interesting race for Best Actress shaping up between Kate W. and Meryl Streep, who is so fucking mean in this movie you want to jump into the screen and punch her in the crotch. In all of the other major award competitions, Winslet's role was listed as Supporting Actress (and she won everything). For whatever reason, the Academy nominated her for Best Actress. Not only did this DQ her performance in Revolutionary Road (by Academy rules you can only be nominated for one performance per category in the acting races), but it turns what was a slam-dunk win in the Supporting category into a horse race with the best actress ever. Someone's getting fucked here. At any rate, the acting in this movie was great, but the direction blew. It did not translate to the screen. It was just a filmed play. Great acting. Bad direction. Think I wrote about that already. Apparently this guy's only previous feature was Joe vs. the Volcano. Explains a lot. (BTW, with Winslet out of the Supporting category, two actresses in this film - Amy Adams and Viola Davis - could end us an beneficiaries, especially if voters picking Winslet for Best Actress are looking for a way to give Doubt an Oscar. Davis is in two scenes - both with Streep - and holds her own. That alone is worthy of an award. Adams, as the mousy nun/teacher whose vivid imagination sends Streep on a witch hunt, continues her run of great performances by an actress who could be (but isn't) a box-office star if she chose shittier roles.

The Wrestler - **1/2 - This movie hinges entirely on Rourke's so-called resurrection. He is in every scene, so if you don't like him, you won't like the movie. It's got a few other bonuses, including an oft-naked Marisa Tomei (looking GREAT at 44), but this is mostly about Rourke. The fact that he's playing a has-been adds to the life imitating art bullshit that has Hollywood jerking off over him. Rourke is VERY good. The movie is good - again, really nothing else going on besides Rourke's acting and a cool '80s hair metal soundtrack For rasslin' fans, there's plenty of good ol' fashioned blood bouts. Staple guns!

Still on my list:
Rev. Rd.
WALL-E (somehow I missed this despite having three kids)
Happy Go Lucky
Rachel's Getting Married
Frozen River
Gran Torino
Taken
Defiance

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