Thursday, October 09, 2008

Political Observations

Even though I'm out here in Fargo for the moment, my newspaper of choice is still the Washington Post. While the polls say that the Presidential race is still too close to call, it seems like the Post's leading conservative lights are giving up on McCain.

Last week, RNC sycophant Charles Krauthammer waved the white flag of surrender on McCain's behalf. Naturally Krauthammer had to take a few shots at Obama and the Democratic party, but he did have the grace and intellectual honesty to acknowledge that the Democratic candidate for President has, " . . . both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament."

Then today George Will continued writing the epitaph for McCain's campaign for President. In the first four paragraphs of today's column Will manages to compare (or highlight comparisons of) McCain to legendary baseball manager Earl Weaver, Don Quixote, and Jesse Jackson. It was equal parts hilarious, brutal, and accurate and that was before Will started eviscerating McCain's mortgage bailout plan.

But there's a little more to the story than just the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments being done by conservative commentators. Clarence Page of the Chicago Tribune is concerned about the "Bubba vote." In a nutshell, Page wonders whether the "Bradley effect" will scuttle Obama's bid for the Presidency. It's a legitimate concern and one that can't really be addressed in a proactive way.

UPDATED
Knockout Ed from COINTELPOL provided a link to a good piece of analysis on the Bradley effect. I'm not sure I buy it 100%, but it's definitely worthy of consideration.

SECOND UPDATE
OTOH

6 comments:

Knockout Ed said...

Nate @ fivethirtyeight.com, to me at least, pretty much put any notion of the Bradley Effect to bed with this post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

Hill Rat said...

Knockout Ed,

Thanks for the comment and the link. I'm not sure that Nate's fine analysis of the Bradley effect is the final word, but it certainly provides some food for thought.

Best,

HR

Knockout Ed said...

this is interesting. a guy who was on bradley's team back then says there never was a bradley effect: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html

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